These are America’s 10 weakest state economies most at risk in a recession

• In trying to attract businesses, states are playing to corporate leaders’ economic anxieties, marketing themselves as safe havens.
• Because of that, CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Business rankings give extra weight to state economies in 2025.
• The results show that some states are especially vulnerable to a downturn, especially if national economic conditions worsen.

The odds of a recession may be falling, but states appear to be betting that corporate leaders are still nervous.

Because the Top States overall methodology prioritizes the factors that states are talking about most, the Economy category carries the most weight in this year’s competitiveness study.

To score each state’s economy, we considered traditional measures such as state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, and the strength of the local housing market. But with the Trump administration seeking to slash federal spending and raise tariffs, we also considered how dependent each state is on the federal government. And we considered each state’s exposure to a trade war, using data compiled for us by Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington, D.C.-based research firm.

Some states enter these uncertain times in a position of strength. But by the numbers, these ten states are the most vulnerable in a downturn.

The Top 5 on the list with New Mexico at 5^th place for weakest state economy.

                    1. Alaska                         2. Mississippi                       3. Kansas                     4. Louisiana                      5. New Mexico